R-MAP Keystone

Every risk register on earth ranks by likelihood times consequence. That ranking answers which risk is biggest on average. Nobody funds mitigation for the average - they fund it for the year that hurts. KEYSTONE re-ranks your risks by their share of the worst years, and the two rankings routinely disagree. THE REGISTER State each risk as a three-point range: how often it happens, how bad it is when it does. Minimum, most likely, maximum - the range you actually believe. KEYSTONE turns your ranges into distributions; you never have to name one. THE MATRIX Risks do not fail politely, one at a time. Set how strongly each pair moves together with a tap. Correlation is what the tail is made of, and it is the input almost every simple tool ignores. THE RANK FLIP KEYSTONE samples your whole portfolio tens of thousands of times through the correlation matrix, then allocates the tail back to the individual risks by the Euler principle - each risk's exact share of the worst years, summing to the portfolio total. The result is two rankings side by side: the register's order and the tail's order, with an arrow on every risk they disagree about. A risk sitting seventh on your register and first in the tail is the finding this app exists for. THE CLIFF Drag one slider and watch every correlation converge toward 1 - a crisis, when everything moves together. The distance between the left edge and the right edge is your diversification, and it is the first thing a real crisis takes away. KEYSTONE tells you the crisis premium still ahead of you. HONEST ABOUT ERROR The tail is an estimate. KEYSTONE bootstraps an error band onto its own numbers and prints it next to them. Auto re-sample re-runs the simulation continuously with a stepping seed so you can watch the estimates breathe - that wobble is sampling error made visible, and no number here pretends to more precision than it has. REPRODUCIBLE BY SEED Every run is driven by a printed seed. Quote it in the shareable report and anyone with KEYSTONE and your register reproduces every number exactly. Risk numbers you can audit. CALIBRATION People state ranges that are too narrow. The calibration correction widens every severity range by a factor you control - and if you track your own forecasting record in R-MAP Caliber, free on the App Store, you can use your measured overconfidence as that factor. FREE AND FULL Free: the complete worked example portfolio - eight risks, correlations preset, every screen live - plus up to five risks of your own. One purchase unlocks unlimited risks and correlation editing. No subscription. PRIVATE BY DESIGN Everything stays on your device. No account, no sign-in, no analytics, no tracking. The only network activity is the App Store purchase itself, handled by Apple. Built by R-MAP LLC.