R-MAP Crux

Every decision tool on earth helps you pick between options. Almost none of them will tell you the truth that matters more: that you are not ready to pick at all, and what it would cost to become ready. CRUX does both, in that order. THE FRAME A decision is options against an uncertainty. Name the states of the world and how likely you believe they are, then state each option's payoff under each state as a range - minimum, most likely, maximum. Ranges become distributions; you never name one. DOMINANCE FIRST Before asking anything about your preferences, CRUX tests first-order stochastic dominance across the whole distribution. When one option is at least as good at every percentile of every outcome, it says so in plain language: your risk tolerance is irrelevant to this choice. The strongest claim a decision analysis can make, and most tools never check it. THE VERDICT CAN BE "NOT YET" CRUX computes the expected value of perfect information - what resolving the uncertainty first would be worth. When that number is large next to the decision itself, the verdict is not a recommendation. It is: premature. Deciding today leaves money on the table, and here is the figure. PRICE A REAL STUDY Perfect information does not exist, but pilots, surveys and expert opinions do. Set how often a study would be right and CRUX prices it. If the study costs less than it is worth, buy the information before you buy the decision. THE BREAKEVEN PRIOR You said the market adopts with 45% probability. CRUX tells you the answer flips at 50% - and asks how sure you are of that number. Most disagreements about decisions are actually disagreements about probabilities, and this makes them visible. PREFERENCE, ASKED LAST Only when dominance and information cannot settle it does CRUX ask about your risk attitude. One slider. Certainty equivalents re-rank live: the sure amount each gamble is worth to you, not just its average. REPRODUCIBLE BY SEED Every analysis runs from a printed seed. Share the report and anyone with CRUX and your frame reproduces every number exactly. CALIBRATION Ranges people state are too narrow. CRUX can widen every payoff range by a factor you control - and if you track your forecasting record in R-MAP Caliber, free on the App Store, your measured overconfidence is the right factor. FREE AND FULL Free: the complete worked example decision plus one decision of your own. One purchase unlocks unlimited decisions and study pricing. No subscription. PRIVATE BY DESIGN Everything stays on your device. No account, no sign-in, no analytics, no tracking. The only network activity is the App Store purchase itself, handled by Apple. Built by R-MAP LLC.