R-MAP Caliber

CALIBER is a decision-quality tracker. You write down what you think will happen and how likely you think it is. Later you record what actually happened. CALIBER then tells you, in numbers, whether your confidence deserved to be trusted. Most people never learn whether their judgment is good, because they never write the prediction down and never go back to check. Confidence and accuracy drift apart quietly. CALIBER closes that loop. LOG A FORECAST State the claim in plain language, set a probability from 5% to 95%, and give it a resolution date. CALIBER reminds you when the date arrives so open questions do not simply expire. SEE YOUR CALIBRATION The calibration curve groups your forecasts by the probability you assigned and plots how often those things actually happened. A well-calibrated forecaster's points sit on the diagonal: the things you called 70% happen about seventy percent of the time. SCORE, DECOMPOSED Your Brier score is broken into reliability, resolution and uncertainty, so you can see whether you are miscalibrated, undecisive, or simply forecasting hard questions. A skill score compares you against always guessing the base rate, which is the only honest benchmark. DISCRIMINATION A ROC curve and its area tell you something calibration cannot: whether you separate the things that happen from the things that do not, regardless of whether your numbers are well-scaled. THE NOISE FLOOR With a small ledger, a good score can be luck. CALIBER replays your forecasts thousands of times against chance and shows you the band a coin flip would have produced, so you know when your record actually means something. DECISIVENESS Confidence bands from 50-60% up to 90-100% show where you are bold and where you hedge, and whether the boldness is earned. PRACTICE Timed drills on calibration questions, scored the same way, so you can build the habit without waiting months for real forecasts to resolve. JOURNAL Record the reasoning behind a call while you still remember it. Hindsight rewrites memory; the journal does not. PRIVATE BY DESIGN Everything stays on your device. No account, no sign-in, no servers, no analytics, no tracking, no advertising identifiers. CALIBER collects nothing because it sends nothing anywhere. Built by R-MAP LLC.