Futures Study

Most journals ask how you feel. Futures Study asks what happens next — and then checks whether you were right. Take something real you just encountered: an article, a post, a price change, a hiring trend you noticed at work. Futures Study walks you through the reasoning frameworks professional forecasters and intelligence analysts actually use, one carefully written question per screen. Then you commit to a falsifiable prediction — a confidence level, a resolution date, and your own written bar for what counts as true. When the date arrives, the app asks what actually happened. Every honest answer sharpens your personal calibration curve: when you say 80%, are you right 80% of the time? SIX FRAMEWORKS, WRITTEN BY A HUMAN • Cone of Possibility — probable, plausible, possible, preferred, and the bridge between them. The two-minute Quick Take. • STEEP Horizon Scan — five domains, with questions that adapt to how you tagged the signal. • Futures Wheel — push past the obvious into second- and third-order consequences. • Assumption Audit — a pre-mortem for your reasoning, borrowed from intelligence tradecraft. • Base Rates & Reference Class — forecast from history, not headlines. • Scenario Planning — the classic 2×2, ending with the scenario you're least prepared for. Run one per sitting, chain several into a full workout, or return to an entry days later and go deeper. In a hurry? Quick Prediction logs a falsifiable one-liner in ten seconds. CALIBRATION, MEASURED • Your calibration curve against the perfect diagonal, with a plain-language reading of where you run hot • Brier score, hit rate, and breakdowns by confidence band and by domain • Your own track record shown live under the slider while you commit to a new number • Morning reminders when predictions come due; snooze-free, guilt-free CAPTURE FROM ANYWHERE • Share links straight from Safari or any app • Home-screen widget with what's due this week • Apple Watch app for a glanceable inbox • Drafts save as you type; Spotlight finds any entry YOUR DATA IS YOURS No account. No server. No analytics. No AI — every question was written by a human editor with a point of view. The App Store privacy label says "Data Not Collected" because there is nothing to collect it with. Export everything as JSON or CSV; import your track record from Fatebook or any spreadsheet. One-time purchase. Every feature included, forever. Three worked sample entries are included so you can see the whole loop on day one — including one prediction that resolved False, because being wrong productively is the skill this app trains. If you've read Superforecasting, track predictions in a spreadsheet, or suspect your feed is making you confidently wrong: this is the instrument.